Disaster planning

Map of earthquakes (M6.0+) 1900-2017 [1]

This article is predicated on a comment made by Cedric Price, namely:—

"The whole question of disaster planning is unlikely even to be satisfactorily resolved in physical terms. Only when Agadir and Aberfan are recognised as likely events will the necessary legislation and management enable 'disaster' planning to afford sufficient anticipatory design effort and product."

Price, 1970, 'Surface oil containment' [2]

[edit] What do we know?

[edit] Earthquakes

The first point is do we recognise Agadir as a likely event?

Table 1 below indicates the numbers of earthquakes and resulting deaths since Agadir:—

Thus we know:—

... that Agadir is a likely event.

[edit] Landslides

The second point is do we recognise Aberfan as a likely event?

Table 2 below indicates the numbers of landslides and resulting deaths since Aberfan:—

Thus we know ... that Aberfan is a likely event.

[edit] Why do we care?

[edit] Research

The next point is "why should an ARCHITECT be interested". (Price, ib., capitals in original)

Air Structures Research: diagram for surface oil containment - Cedric Price © CCA used with permission

Drawing 72 36 above illustrates a project which occurred just before the Torrey Canyon oil spill, This disaster ied to a number of changes in international regulations. For example:—

"...the International Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution Damage (CLC) of 1969, which imposed strict liability on ship owners without the need to prove negligence, and the 1973 International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships." (Wikipedia)

However, according to Wikipedia, there have been 212 confirmed spills since Torrey Canyon.

Furthermore, the lists of disasters below indicate the increasing numbers of disasters:—

• Natural disasters
• Accidents
  • Transport
  • Industrial
  • Health
• Manmade
• Environmental hazard

Thus we care because the numbers of disasters and deaths indicated in Tables 1 and 2; the number of confirmed spills since Torrey Canyon; and the increasing numbers of disasters; each provide evidence to support the argument, namely: that the legislation and management deemed necessary by Cedric Price is missing.

[edit] Development

The final point is how much anticipatory design effort and product do we deem sufficient?

The graph below indicates the trend in the number of disasters since 1900. [3]

In contrast, the bar chart below indicates the number of deaths from all disasters for each decade since the 1900s. [4]

Thus we also care because (a) the trend in the number of disasters is upwards and (b) although the average numbers of deaths from disasters has reduced from more than 500,000 in the 1920s to less than 50,000 in the 2010s, the downward trend has effectively plateaued since the 1990s.

[edit] What can we do?

[edit] Interest

This article affirms its premises and proves the validity of the argument.

It therefore reaches a valid conclusion, namely: ... that the amount of anticipatory design effort and product we deem sufficient must be enough to mitigate the effects of the increasing number of disasters and to reduce the number of deaths from disasters to zero.

The crucial question now is what can architects do?

In the 'ACTION and inaction' section of 'Works II' Cedric Price has pointed at: "...reasons for architects to involve themselves continuously in anticipatory design as recommended by Buckminster Fuller." Price, C., 1984, 'Works II', aka 'The Square Book'

In fact, we know from a talk that Buckminster Fuller recommended a way for architects to involve themselves: "There is an effective strategy open to the architects. Whereas doctors deal with the interior organisms of man, architects deal with the exterior organisms of man. Architects might join with one another to carry on their work in laboratories as do doctors in anticipatory medicine. Architects might solve design problems of world-resource use before people get into resource troubles. Architects might thus join forces, as do scientists, with the integrity of inter-self accrediting of the respective abilities of each individual on the team. Architects might begin the laboratory pooling of their resource capabilities at the university level." Fuller, B., 1959, 'The Comprehensive Man', quoted in Fellows, N., 2022, 'Anticipatory Design'

Thus this article advocates: we can go beyond merely caring about disaster planning - i.e. having an interest in it - and actively engage with it.

[edit] Engagement

To be continued...

This article was written by Norman Fellows.

[edit] References

• Fellows, N. (2022), 'Anticipatory Design', Designing Buildings
• Our World in Data (2020) 'Number of recorded natural, disaster events, All natural disasters, 1900 to 2019' [3]
• Our World in Data (2020) 'Decadal average: Number of deaths from disasters' [4]
• Phoenix7777 (2018) 'Map of earthquakes 1900-2017' [1]
• Price, C. (1970) Cedric Price Supplement No. 1, AD/10/70 [2]
• Price, C. (1966-1971) 'Air Structures Research', Canadian Centre for Architecture
• Wikipedia (2022) 'Lists of disasters'
• Wikipedia (2022) 'Lists of 20th-century earthquakes'
• Wikipedia (2022) 'List of earthquakes 2001–2010'
• Wikipedia (2022) 'List of earthquakes 2011-2020'
• Wikipedia (2022) 'List of landslides'
• Wikipedia (2022) 'List of oil spills'

[edit] Further reading

Sridhar, S. (2024) 'What is the real toll of natural and climate disasters? Science has staggering new answers', Guardian, 6 December.

--Archiblog 08:53, 11 Sep 2022 (BST)

[edit] Related articles on Designing Buildings

• After Mexico - earthquakes and resilient cities.
• Anticipatory Design.
• Avoiding disaster in existing buildings and infrastructure.
• Climate change.
• Disaster.
• Earthquake Design Practice for Buildings.
• Earthquake resistant building materials.
• Earthquakes and the seismic strengthening of churches.
• Engineers and hurricanes.
• Flood.
• Future proofing construction.
• Helping communities recover from disasters and protecting them before they occur.
• How to rebuild using the debris from disasters.
• Hurricane cellar.
• Hurricane design considerations.
• Managing and Responding to Disaster.
• Natural disaster.
• Research and development in disaster response.
• Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.
• Summerland disaster.
• Ten years on – Lessons from the Flood on building resilience.
• Tsunami.

Comments

This comment assumes that if we take any other type of disaster the legislation and management necessary to afford sufficient anticipatory design effort and product is missing.

For example, since the Summerland disaster in 1973 which killed 51 people, there have been at least 26 serious building fires in the UK, including the Valley Parade Ground Stadium Fire in Bradford which killed 56 people; the King's Cross tube station fire which killed 31 people; and Grenfell Tower fire which killed 72 people.

Worldwide, there were more than 500 serious fires between 1900 and 2019 resulting in almost 30,000 deaths. In other words, there is no shortage of evidence that building fires are likely events.

This suggests a follow-up article entitled 'Disaster planning: Building Fires" with perhaps a case study of building fires in the UK.

[edit] In case you missed it:—

Makoli, M. A. (2023) 'Afghanistan earthquake has killed more than 1,000, Taliban say', The Guardian, Sun 8 Oct 2023 11.03 CEST.